BSRIA confirms drive towards natural refrigerants at AHR 2014

During the New York AHR Expo, organised on 21-23 January, British BSRIA research association presented on global heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) market trends and drivers. hydrocarbons21.com reports from the AHR BSRIA seminar on market drivers and those predictions that impact and relate to the natural refrigerant industry.

Global refrigeration market drivers

Drivers behind change in refrigeration markets are varied, and as a whole it can be argues that these markets move relatively slowly. However, across the world there is a trend towards natural refrigerants. This was the main conclusion of the BSRIA presentation by Anette Meyer Holley, which was based on a recent market study by the research group.

The study, based on an in depth analysis of 9 markets (Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Russia, UK and the USA), concluded that in Europe a key driving force is tightening legislation, with the new EU F-Gas Regulation pushing for more environmentally friendly refrigerants and higher energy efficiency. In developing markets, however, the central driver is often the need to reduce wastage of food and improve the cold chain.

In her presentation Holley suggested that in the period from 2011 to 2016 the fastest growth in the refrigeration market would be observed in India, where it was estimated to reach 14.5%, followed by Brazil, where it was predicted to reach 8.5%, and Russia and China, each with a respective growth forecast of 7.5% growth and 7%. Market growth in Italy, the USA, France, the UK and Germany is expected to be slower.

Although the uptake of new technologies in these markets is still modest, it is a growing trend and BSRIA’s analysis confirms a drive towards natural refrigerants.

AC global trends

Using the latest data, Alfonso Oliva, BSRIA Chief Research Officer in North America, in his presentation highlighted the global HVAC hot spots and how the economic climate is affecting the market. Oliva explained that in 2012 the global AC market recorded a fall, after which a recovery was observed with an average growth rate of 4%. An important factor that contributed to the market’s recovery was investments in R&D, which helped to reduce production costs.

In 2013, the world AC market reached 117 million units sold in a year, while in terms of value it is a market worth $90 billion (€67 billion), claims BSRIA.

AC global hot spots

Oliva in his presentation also identified the 12 top AC global markets based on the market value and expected growth. In terms of market value, the top 3 leaders are China ($ 27,966 million / €20,67 million), Japan ($13,369 million / €9,88 million) and the USA ($ 12,853 / €9,50 million). While looking at the market potential, the highest AC market growth in the 2012 – 2016 time frame is expected in Brazil where the market is expected to grow +130%. The Russian and Indian AC markets are expected to grow +35% and +30% respectively. Chinese and US AC markets, which currently have the highest market value, are foreseen to grow 29% and 22%, with Germany being the European AC market leader with +20% growth expected.

About BSRIA

BSRIA is a British-based test, instruments, research and consultancy organisation, owned by The Building Services Research and Information Association.