Natural refrigerant forecasts: future hydrocarbon demand

With hydrocarbon refrigerant use expanding around the globe, particularly in the commercial refrigeration and stationary air conditioning sectors, hydrocarbons21.com looks at the market forecasts for 2015 from the latest UNEP TEAP report and the upcoming shecco publication, the “GUIDE 2012: Natural Refrigerants – Market Growth for North America”.

Earlier this year the UNEP Technology and Economic Assessment Panel published its Progress Report evaluating the quantities and types of alternative refrigerants projected to be phased in as replacements for hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), whilst shecco will launch the second in its series of easy-to-use GUIDEs to the market for natural refrigerants this autumn.

According to these reports the push the reduce HCFCs will see increasing investment in natural refrigerants as end-users in both non-Article 5 and Article 5 countries seek to lessen their environmental impact and increase efficiency. However, perhaps unsurprisingly, estimates of hydrocarbon market share in North America, where hydrocarbons only recently became acceptable alternatives in certain applications, are slightly lower than for the rest of the world as a whole.

TEAP Report: hydrocarbon up to 10% market share in commercial refrigeration by 2015

In non-Article 5 countries* the demand for HCFCs in the commercial refrigeration sector is expected to approach zero by 2015, whilst the demand for HFCs is expected to slowly grow after a period of steep increase (1999-2009). The demand for other refrigerants such as R290, R717, and R744 is expected to be in the order of 17% of the total in tonnes. In 2015 the refrigerant banks of R290, R717 and R744 is expected to be 14,500 tonnes, having increased to 10.4% of the total from 1.3% of the total in tonnes in 2000.

In Article 5 countries the demand for other refrigerants, like R290, R717, R744 is expected to be in the order of 6% of the total in tonnes; this can be translated in a larger percentage of equipment because of the lower charge used for hydrocarbons. In 2015 the refrigerant banks of R290 and R717 is forecast to be 12,500 tonnes.

TEAP Report: hydrocarbon up to 5% market share in stationary air conditioning by 2015

In non-Article 5 countries the demand for HFCs is expected to steeply increase beyond the year 2015; this increase started when the demand for HCFCs started to decrease. The demand for refrigerants, R290, R717, and R744 is expected to be in the order of 22% of the total in tonnes. In 2015 the refrigerant banks for R290 is expected to be 5,000 tonnes, having increased from 0% in 2000 to 5.2% in 2015.

In Article 5 countries the demand for refrigerants, R290, R717, and R744 is expected to be in the order of 3% of the total in tonnes. In 2015 the refrigerant bank for R290 will be 14,500 tonnes, having increased from 0% in 2000 to 1%.

GUIDE 2012 – hydrocarbons to have up to 5% market share in commercial refrigeration and stationary air conditioning sectors in 2015

In comparison to the TEAP reports, estimates for hydrocarbon market share in the upcoming “GUIDE 2012: Natural Refrigerants – Market Growth for North America”, are more conservative. The GUIDE market projections are based on responses to an online survey that has been running since February 2012, which has so far received over 500 responses.

The majority of respondents to this survey believe that the market share of hydrocarbon refrigerants in the commercial refrigeration sector in 2015 will be between 0-5%. For this question survey results were as follows:

0-5% of market share: 50.0%
6-10% of market share: 19.0%
11-20% of market share: 11.4%
21-50% of market share: 9.5%
More than 50% of market share: 10.1%

With regard to the market share of hydrocarbons in the air conditioning sector in 2015 for the Stationary Air Conditioning sector, the survey revealed the following:

0-5% of market share: 51.1%
6-10% of market share: 11.1%
11-20% of market share: 17.8%
21-50% of market share: 13.3%
More than 50% of market share: 6.7%

North American survey on the market potential of hydrocarbons

The online GUIDE 2012 Natural Refrigerant in North America survey is still open. If you work in the heating, air conditioning and refrigeration sectors in North America fill in the questionnaire and help to inform one of the first overviews of natural refrigerant trends and developments in Canada, Mexico and the US:

http://guide.shecco.com/

*An Article 5 Country is any Party to the Montreal Protocol that is a developing country and whose annual calculated level of consumption of the controlled substances in Annex A is less than 0.3 kilograms per capita.

Article 5 countries are allowed to delay implementation of control provisions and may receive assistance under the Multilateral Fund. Currently over 120 countries hold Article 5 status.